Information Extraction - short stack calls

Don't analyze short stack calls, when an opponent is forced to call due to a shorter stack going all in normally in a tournament, as a hand of any importance for understanding how an opponent thinks. 

For the desperation shover, the one with the short stack trying to double up or go home, it doesn't mean much because they are forced by the pot odds to call versus folding and the remaining big blinds.  It's a mathematical reality - either you double up or you won't survive long enough to make the money either way.

For the short stack calling  person - most likely the big blind with pot odds to call and a weak hand - because they are simply calling to make sure the short stack doesn't get the chips with no resistance.  If I am holding 87 off suit and I am getting 5:1 on a call I am calling that short stack even though my hand might be a dominated 30% or even 20% hand.  It's 20% chance to take out a player with good pot odds.  If you get lucky then he's out. If you don't he's just doubled up to a few big blinds. It's a hand that plays itself.

But as a data point to decide what either player is, or how they play, it is meaningless. Since it is an automatic play for both players, it is nothing significant.

Playing Chicken

Sometimes when you are down to heads up, you need to play chicken more than count on cards.  By that point in the tournament, you should know what kind of betting your opponent will call and what kinds he will fold to.  Some people can see through all-in betting.  Some people are more weary of pot sized betting.  Some people think that value bets are the suspicious.

You need to find out what the betting pattern is the most fearsome to your opponent.

So you are in fact, when in first aggressor position, going to play chicken and not cards. 

Poker karmic body slam

Ok, I just watched this Russian player make about thirty bad decisions in a row. He takes his time, which suggests he's thinking, and then he does the exact opposite of what you should do. So he's not thinking.

But do you know what the worst part is?
He gets reraised by a guy sitting patiently for cards ( AKA waiting for a monster) and then decides to get cute and bluff reraise. Of course shark reraised all-in at this point. So Russian thinker goes in tank  for a while. And comes out with a call.

Shark turns over KK.
"Thinker" turns over KQ.

Flops comes. Queen. Three. Queen.

That's a karma body slam!

WCOOP 18 on Pokerstars

I just won a satellite to the WCOOP online poker tournament on Pokerstars. I played a $2.20 rebuy tourney and won a $320 ticket. I got really lucky not to finish 5th and out of the tickets. Still, that would mean $109 so not bad. It's on a Friday in September and I work so perhaps i'll just take the cash and play more lower buy-ins.

Definition of Luck - Convergence of factors

So, anyone that has read my blog might find it a little strange I complained about luck.  Luck is a fuzzy undefined thing so when a person that prides themself on tactics and pattern recognition uses it, well it sounds like I've gone over to other side and next I'm going to discuss pixies and dark magic like a crazy person.

Well, here's my definition of luck - a convergence of negative factors (or positive factors depending on which side you are on).  So when circumstances are largely in your favour - you are 85% all-in with a 85% hand and on the river you lose - that's what I meant by luck. When some situation goes all your way or all against you at a critical time.

Another example. I'm playing at the $70 Caesar's Palace tournament and I scrape into the money with the final 34 players.  It just so happens that I'm the big blind on the very next hand when I have to put 50% of my chips in.  I am now the shortest stack at the table.  From early position, a player raises big and the next player reraises him.  I look down at A-8o.  Of course I really should call, because at this point I'm not quite pot committed but if I don't call I'm left with very little chips.  My read on the situation is two big hands that want to dance for all the chips.  Since I know I'm less than a 33% favourite to win I fold.

I watch the flop come A - K - 8.  First aggressor had Kings and his neighbor had Aces.  This is what I mean by luck.  If the bet was smaller and I just called I would have been out on that hand regardless. The only winning play was to fold and I made it.  On the very next hand, now with a tiny stack, the button raises minimum and I shove with the best hand K6s versus QJo. I knew he was stealing and I knew I was ahead and really had one play left.  But if I hadn't just been decimated I might have waited for a better situation. But I could see little cards for an hour and I only had one orbit left. Even so, my hand was about a 60% favourite so it was the right play. He was pot committed to call me and that's great because I'm ahead and need the double up. Of course he hit a Jack to win.  That's my luck on that tournament.  If the two hands together didn't happen in that order maybe I go on to win the tournament?  

So when I talk of luck, I'm really talking about the time history around the current situation. If you bluff and get caught one hand then wake up with Aces - that's luck - a convergence of factors that lead to an opportunity to use your bluffing image to your advantage.

I have the worst luck...no kidding

I just lost to a set of Kings, with pocket Aces, in a $215 buy-in on Full Tilt. I did everything right.

Everyone claims they are unlucky. Well how about this?

Pocket Kings moron, name not needed, from early position raises big, I look down at pocket aces and the guy beside me calls so I don't want to play a 3 way pot. Or more.  I am in the middle of the chips stack pack, so I have a bigger than tournament average stack and I don't want to play a higher risk hand when all I want is to take down the pot. I was in middle position so I had 4 people behind me left to act. I was trying to mitigate the risk to my pair. Shutting out players is what you need to do so no one else flops a set and wipes you out.

In addition, if the first aggressor had a big pair I can make my hand look like AK trying to take a small pot. I reraise all in - not 3 or four bet - to make the effect I want.  Why would a big pair go all in? The pattern looks like a big Ace from a big stack trying to take down a small pot.  The guy with pocket kings or queens is salivating at the chance to double up.

Well, guess what, he bit on the bait so bad it hurt him. He had exactly the right hand and he made exactly the wrong play.  He was all in with Kings against Aces. I did everything right.  I blocked out all other players. I suckered him in.  He was drawing dead to 2 Kings. And he hit it on the river. King on the river to make a full house.  Un-effing-believable.

This is why I'm not a rich poker player - because the worst case scenarios always happen to me. Always.  Stupid players walk away with the chips and they had no idea how lucky they were. Or they do and look foolish but who cares then right, they make stupid plays, I make them commit then they walk away with the chips.  It gets really really tiring.  I didn't even mention I had to fold Aces earlier on when the fish on my left flopped a flush.  Twice in one tourney Aces cracked. Twice in 115 hands. That's my luck.

When it comes to skill, I got a set of tens to go all in against my Broadway.  I got a 6 high straight to call a reraise on my Ace high flush.  I can play.

But if you have a big stack call my all-in with 62 suited, you're sure to crack my pocket Eights.


NB:  The player that cracked my aces didn't even make the money.  That hurts even worse!

A Fearsome Player Image

One of the most fearsome player images to hold is the merciless chip leader.  If you have a huge chip lead that means tangling with you could mean game over on any hand.  That is enough to make most people pause before they call your raise.  That doubt can be used to make people lay down good hands close to the money bubble as they would rather try and hang on.

This is a huge advantage to use for your enrichment.  This is when you can raise with garbage and get away with it.

But a truly fearsome reputation is that you have such a huge chip lead AND you will call someone with any hand just to knock them out. If the other opponents watch you call with bad aces, suited connectors, and hit hands to wipe out short stacks, then they know they can't reraise your raise - you're calling. They can't desperation shove your big blind - you're calling.  They take their tournament life in their hands playing against you.

Of course if they have a premium hand they will want you to call.  And they will see you double up players some of the time.  But if you are also wiping players out in rapid succession then that's just too much for people. They will want to give you a wide lane. They will take their chances against other players they think they will have a chance against.

This is the perfect time to raise and take down pots with junk hands.  Keep pushing till they push back.