Showing posts with label normal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label normal. Show all posts

Friday, July 13, 2018

Beating Normal: Ignoring MATH.

You can have all the best strategies in the world but it won't work if you don't understand how normal people play.
http://pokerdaemon.blogspot.com/2014/06/superior-texas-hold.html

In the long run, you are taking money from bad players that eventually run out of luck, make the wrong decision, or try to bluff the wrong situation. Against even or better players, you are losing money. So what I made the biggest adjustment in to win is accepting that most players are "normal" and play badly.

Without getting upset at bad players hanging on till the river, you can focus on the situations where you exploit their weaknesses. That was my mistake for the first 5 years. I learned to play at a kitchen table for fun. When I went into it seriously I was no fun to play with, nothing irked me more than watching players play foolishly - and win.

The first factor you need to account for when playing normal players, is they ignore the math.

Pot odds is a generic example of ignoring math, but the most important one, that you can exploit.

I explain pot odds at length in my poker book, Superior Texas Hold'em, so I won't go into it here. Basically, it is the value of your potential odds( expected outcome ) versus the amount needed to call.

In any case, most hands are won with Ace High. I say again, most hands are won with an ace and the board.

The most common mistake is hanging on until the river with draws, most often flushes.
 Or as they say in Las Vegas:

Folks that chase flushes arrive on planes and leave on buses...
Flushes are so hard to hit that playing flush cards to the river is a long term losing strategy. That's how normal players drop their stacks to the danger zone. I will chase one for the turn, and in some cases to the river but only if I am a large stack and that's when you are paying to eliminate players.

How do you exploit that? One way is position and read based bluffs.

Bluffs in position (CAVEAT BELOW):  if you are the first aggressor ( explained in my book ) and you have labelled a player as weak loose player AKA Fish due to observing his/her playstyle - is out of position to you, then you can bet flush boards confident that more times than not that person has flush cards and not top pair. This requires the resolve to bet 2 or 3 times and especially on the river when a flush card doesn't arrive. When the board doesn't hit a draw, you bet the river like I talk about in the book and you take down the pot.

In micro stakes tournament poker, this is your bread and butter move to acquire chips and present a loose table image.  I discuss loose versus tight in the book if you want my definition.  You aren't playing loose per se, you are making a calculated move to get chips; you are playing poker. You can exploit more situations when sometimes you get called. Sometimes, this move will bust you out of the tournament. But you aren't going to win every tournament, you are playing in your longer term  best interest by taking more chips than you would waiting for the best cards.

Of course, this advice must be taken with mountain of salt as with all poker advice. The poker hand space is over 4 BILLION hand combinations wide. No advice is ironclad, anyone claiming that is insane. There are lots of ways you will lose doing this.  If the board is both straight and flush rich - lots of poker hands with both straight and flush combinations - then those normal persons will probably hang on and have lots of hits you can't see.

Players are better than they were many years ago, lots of people will defend top pair with their life. That is the biggest caveat.

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Beating normal

When it comes right down to it, there are three classes of poker players you need to consider.

Like Miyamoto Musashi, you will cross swords with people that are better than you, people that are worse than you, and people about the same in skill. That reality is a time-varying function, as you get better your average on the continuum will go up but it still amounts to three classes, only your percentile behind decreases ( or increases ).

Luck will be a factor in short term outcomes. Luck, or as I call it a convergence of circumstances, varies over time, in this case in card sequence iterations. You can't cancel luck in the short terms, but you can cancel it over the long term. So in effect for the present discussion we can negate the impact of luck.

Against better players, you will come out on top less than half the time over the long term.

Against similar players, you will end about even barring luck most of the time over the long term.

Against worse players, you will end up beating them more times than not. Most players are normal.  Normal players are worse than average. That's almost the definition of normal.

You need to beat normal players to make any money at poker.  Over the long time, you need to understand how the poorest decision makers, the biased thinkers, the outcomes-based emotionalists operate.

It used to be called the dead money, but let's call it by what it means. It means people that are more likely to make bad decisions over and over.

That's