Friday, August 23, 2013

Information Extraction - short stack calls

Don't analyze short stack calls, when an opponent is forced to call due to a shorter stack going all in normally in a tournament, as a hand of any importance for understanding how an opponent thinks. 

For the desperation shover, the one with the short stack trying to double up or go home, it doesn't mean much because they are forced by the pot odds to call versus folding and the remaining big blinds.  It's a mathematical reality - either you double up or you won't survive long enough to make the money either way.

For the short stack calling  person - most likely the big blind with pot odds to call and a weak hand - because they are simply calling to make sure the short stack doesn't get the chips with no resistance.  If I am holding 87 off suit and I am getting 5:1 on a call I am calling that short stack even though my hand might be a dominated 30% or even 20% hand.  It's 20% chance to take out a player with good pot odds.  If you get lucky then he's out. If you don't he's just doubled up to a few big blinds. It's a hand that plays itself.

But as a data point to decide what either player is, or how they play, it is meaningless. Since it is an automatic play for both players, it is nothing significant.

Playing Chicken

Sometimes when you are down to heads up, you need to play chicken more than count on cards.  By that point in the tournament, you should know what kind of betting your opponent will call and what kinds he will fold to.  Some people can see through all-in betting.  Some people are more weary of pot sized betting.  Some people think that value bets are the suspicious.

You need to find out what the betting pattern is the most fearsome to your opponent.

So you are in fact, when in first aggressor position, going to play chicken and not cards. 

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Poker karmic body slam

Ok, I just watched this Russian player make about thirty bad decisions in a row. He takes his time, which suggests he's thinking, and then he does the exact opposite of what you should do. So he's not thinking.

But do you know what the worst part is?
He gets reraised by a guy sitting patiently for cards ( AKA waiting for a monster) and then decides to get cute and bluff reraise. Of course shark reraised all-in at this point. So Russian thinker goes in tank  for a while. And comes out with a call.

Shark turns over KK.
"Thinker" turns over KQ.

Flops comes. Queen. Three. Queen.

That's a karma body slam!

WCOOP 18 on Pokerstars

I just won a satellite to the WCOOP online poker tournament on Pokerstars. I played a $2.20 rebuy tourney and won a $320 ticket. I got really lucky not to finish 5th and out of the tickets. Still, that would mean $109 so not bad. It's on a Friday in September and I work so perhaps i'll just take the cash and play more lower buy-ins.