Saturday, September 16, 2017

Beating normal

When it comes right down to it, there are three classes of poker players you need to consider.

Like Miyamoto Musashi, you will cross swords with people that are better than you, people that are worse than you, and people about the same in skill. That reality is a time-varying function, as you get better your average on the continuum will go up but it still amounts to three classes, only your percentile behind decreases ( or increases ).

Luck will be a factor in short term outcomes. Luck, or as I call it a convergence of circumstances, varies over time, in this case in card sequence iterations. You can't cancel luck in the short terms, but you can cancel it over the long term. So in effect for the present discussion we can negate the impact of luck.

Against better players, you will come out on top less than half the time over the long term.

Against similar players, you will end about even barring luck most of the time over the long term.

Against worse players, you will end up beating them more times than not. Most players are normal.  Normal players are worse than average. That's almost the definition of normal.

You need to beat normal players to make any money at poker.  Over the long time, you need to understand how the poorest decision makers, the biased thinkers, the outcomes-based emotionalists operate.

It used to be called the dead money, but let's call it by what it means. It means people that are more likely to make bad decisions over and over.

That's