Monday, December 23, 2013

Hungarian Uber Donk #1

Here is my first Hungarian Uber Donk: paplan666
Playing a $1 buy-in 6-handed NLHE tournament on PokerStars, I'm about mid pack with 10015 in chips and big stack paplan666 with 34913 in chips raises from under the gun 3 big blinds. He's a tight player, probably because that's his skill level, so I'm looking for a monster flop with my bad hand:
K♣

♣T
7♥

♥7

I flop that monster: [Ks Kd 2s 9h] [Qc]
K♠

♠K
K♦

♦K
2♠

♠2

Ok, other than Ace King which is a distinct possibility given his hand range, I'm beating everything. I've got him right where I want him. I've been playing 50% of my hands so I will get him to bite if he's behind. But just in case I'm losing and to set the trap, I check. Well he bets out about a third of the pot. Now, if I had Ace King, I'm not betting shit in position, I have the absolute nuts. Betting is pointless, you are going to scare off worse hands. You want them to call when you have the nuts. Now I know he doesn't have Ace King.The board looks bluffy with two spades so I do the ol' insta check raise all-in.
To his credit, he stops and thinks about it, but not really all that long. And assuming I might be bluffing and given he's got 20,000 more chips than me he calls. He calls with pocket nines!
Moron! I'm risking my tournament life before the money bubble. At best he's a slight favorite to suited four flush if I have the Ace of spades. But he's no sure winner here. I played so loose and aggressive it worked. And if he was paying attention, I only reraise with the nuts. There's nothing more nuts-like than three of a kind! Based on this information only he should fold. It's not smart to risk his chip dominance against a tricky player. But stupid buys it on a 7% hand. Literally 7% to win. Who's the idiot here?
Of course the board runs out and he wins:
K♣

♣T
7♥

♥7

I flop that monster: [Ks Kd 2s 9h] [Qc]
K♠

♠K
K♦

♦K
2♠

♠2
9♥

♥9
Q♣

♣Q

So congratulations, paplan666, you've officially become the first patented uberbonk! Well played. I'm seriously thinking of changing the Pokerstars motto to : " Bad players, playing badly and getting rewarded for it."

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The power of representation

Steve Silverman, a professional player with millions in poker earnings, still doesn't know the power of representation:

Steve is short stacked, about 10 big blinds at 3,000 / 6,000 1000 ante at the Spanish High Roller $50,000. He was a chip leader, played some hands poorly and got himself in a bind with blinds going up and his stack decreasing. He looks down at

T♥

♥T
9♥

♥9

in middle position, as first aggressor he goes all in for his remaining 33,000 chips. In the small blind, a Norwegian named Jensen calls with
K♠

♠T
J♦

♦J

Jensen calls all-in, there is 79,000 chips in the pot and he gets to see the hole cards. The flop comes down:
4♠

♠4
5♥

♥5
4♥

♥4

Silverman shoved all in pre-flop. The board ran out and he didn't improve and he was eliminated short of the money bubble. Now replay the hand in your head, as Jensen, if Silverman had just raised 3* the big blinds, got a call from Jensen and THEN shoved on the flop.
Imagine you are Jensen. You have King Jack, not even Ace high, your opponent raises and then on this flop that missed you - and you must act first on out of position - the short stack goes all in.

4♠

♠4
5♥

♥5
4♥

♥4

Go through Jensen's thought process. The all-in player could have an ace, he could have an overpair, he could even have 2 hearts. In all those cases, a King is a statistical underdog to win the hand. Remember this is a tournament you paid $50,000 to play and you don't want to double up short stacks if you can help it that just gives him more chances to get back in the game. You want to step on his neck and eliminate him!
Of course, with blinds so high it's possible that Jensen calls the all-in bet regardless because there is so little more to lose it's worth the risk. But because Silverman doesn't use the power of representation he didn't get the chance to put doubt in the mind of Jensen and didn't give himself every chance to win the hand. Even pros play sub-optimally, he's still not an expert!

Monday, December 9, 2013

My favourite hand, the Dead Man's

My favourite hand to bluff reraise hand is the Dead Man's hand:

Of course I am dog to any other ace. I know but if you are going to reraise a periodically with a bad hand it's better to have an ace in your hand. And God help you if you have Big Slick

A♦

♦A
8♣

♣8

And God help you if you have Big Slick on this board:
8♦

♦8
K♦

♦K
8♣

♣8

And I have it

Russian Donk #1

Here is a bad Russian player:

Playing 0.5 / $1.0 tables on PokerStars.  Long time experienced poker player from Russia. I'm in the big blind and the aggressive TAP to my right in the small blind makes it $3 to play. Now, this guy doesn't know his own patterns. He raises 2.5BB normally. So this is suspicious. Looks like he wants me to play "I'm new to value town." What a fool. I may not have much money but I do know how to play. I look down at a weak hand.

I have
T♦

♦T
7♦

♦7

I know he's got a monster so if he is foolish I'm going to get him to pay off. I've got 80 and he's 100 blinds deep. I call. Flop comes down:
9♦

♦9
8♦

♦8
2♣

♣2

Ok, this is a good straight and flush board so a good board to call at least one bet. Maybe even a straight flush. Of course, he has a monster and leads out for $6. Looks like Aces or Kings. Turn card is the joint.
9♦

♦9
8♦

♦8
2♣

♣2
Q♦

♦Q

I hope he's assuming I'm an idiot. He bets again, about $10 and now I insta-reraise him all in. He doesn't think about it, calls immediately and probably because he thought I had AQ or KQ, and also because he has the Ace of diamonds I guess he had a faint hope of a higher flush. Maybe because I had just lost a big pot to a lucky player he thought I was weaker than I was. Not sure , who can say. Well, he sees the bad news and I take down the pot.
As Phil Ivey once said, and it's very true, any player is dangerous. Assuming you are better than they are is a recipe for disaster.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Professional Motivations

Professional poker players don't want to play poker with you, they want to take your money. Remember that.

Turn bet semi-bluff on a flush draw

The turn bet semi-bluff:

This is not a hand specifically, but talks about a scenario that comes up many times. It has become a pattern that many players bet on the turn when they hit a four flush with their cards

Let's say this is your hand:
A♥

♥A
T♥

♥T

and you open as first aggressor with a reasonable 2.5* big blind (BB) bet. The blinds call and you see the flop in position. The dealer turns over:
9♥

♥9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K

You miss, but in case they have small suited connectors you fire out a bet continuation bet on the flop. You get one caller the big blind. This concerns you, perhaps he has a King. You are hesitant what to do. Turn card is a flush and straight draw.
9♥

♥9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K
Q♥

♥Q

This card is an added equity card. He might have a King, perhaps a king with a weak kicker, or he might just be floating to try to take this away from you. He might have an underpair. With this flush card you may not have the best hand, but if you hit your hand, will this player want to risk more money with just an underpair? He also knows you will act last so if he doesn't like the final card - one that makes a flush or a draw - then will he want to continue? You have a chance to take this away right now. Depending on your player read, you need to make the bet at just the right amount. Too much and it looks like a semi-bluff. Too little and he's destined to call with pot odds. You make a 50% bet.

Now, take a look at this hand again, now think about it from your opponent's perspective. Let's say your opponent has:
K♣

♣K
J♥

♥J


9♥

♥9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K
Q♥

♥Q

Your bet makes sense as a semi-bluff, the chances both of you have a King is small. Although if you opponent has AK that bet size makes sense as well. You don't want to call off with a King and a weaker kicker all the time that's just a bad long term playing style. So if your opponent has a King, it makes sense to call. The fact is that more people make this play with two flush cards than with a King. Bottom line, this pattern has become so used that people will be able to extract information from this pattern and take money from you with the best hand. Information extraction is the secret of poker. The more predictable your patterns, then the more times people can put you on a hand and beat you.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

A Bad Bluff

Here is a bad bluff:

Playing 0.5 / $1.0 tables on PokerStars.  Inexperienced player on my left calls my first aggressor raise.

I have
T♥

♥T
T♦

♦T

I raise it as first aggressor, make it $1.50, and then this guy in the small blind with only $20 at the table calls my raise. Not a great play, not a bad play. I know he's floating since he didn't raise me. Big blind folds. The flop is as always problematic for a middle pair:
9♦

♦9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K

Problematic. No info on this guy's patterns, he just sat down, and there are lots of hands that aren't AK he could be holding. Since he has so little at the table, I decide to check call and see what he does. He does bet out $2. Well, that's easy, there is $5.80 in the pot (playing at a table with antes) and there is only one overcard to my pair. I call. Turn card is a blank.
9♦

♦9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K
2♣

♣2

I check to him again. He gives up. He doesn't bet. OK now I know he's got two diamonds or he's just on a fishing trip to see if I'll give up. Well, that's not going to happen. I'm not sure if he now thinks I've got the king or not, maybe he's got pocket threes, but I know I'm ahead. The river card is a perfect bluff card.
9♦

♦9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K
2♣

♣2
8♦

♦8
I check to him again, and he checks behind. I win with a pair of tens. NO!!!! This was a perfect card to fire a bet. I didn't show much strength so my hand can't be that good. He had position on me - he got to act last. He bet on the flop, perhaps representing the flush, and now one comes in and he's not going to try to represent it. This is the perfect card to bet at no matter what his hand is. At least make it hard for me to see the river, I will still call because that's what you do in this game when you know you are ahead. But a good bet or even an all-in bet puts me to a decision. I think he convinced himself that I had the flush cards and when he did that, he lost his way. Well, if I had the flush cards then why didn't I continuation bet on the flop? I can't tell that story, I didn't have the hand! If you're going to fire out on a flop of two flush cards and a third one appears on the river you have backed into your imaginary hand - a flush. Don't bet the flop and then not bet the river. It makes no sense, you told me a story and I sorta believed you. Don't go and ruin it by not finishing it off! He lost his money that hand, called a few more times and then walked away with $10. I don't criticize him personally, but if you are going to play to win you must MUST make these plays. This is the mark of an inexperienced player - this hand right here tells me more about his patterns and his experience level that I can now use against him forever. This information I can use against him until he smartens up. And if you sit down at a poker table with $20 and everyone else has $100 well you have to expect to play for all your money when you enter a pot. I've got no problem reraising middle position raises all-in in that spot. I'm here to win, not spectate.

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Chinese Donk #1

Story of my life....

Ok playing 0.5 / $1.0 tables on PokerStars.  Tight Chinese player on my left, I know he's tight I'm watching his stats.

I look down at
T♥

♥T
9♠

♠9

I raise it as first aggressor, make it $1.50, and then he insta-raises me $3. He reraises me so its obvious he has a big hand. Or like Aces, Kings, Queens, or maybe AK. I figure it's AK since that's more likely and so it's most likely a race. I'm behind but if I catch him hes probably to dumb to dump his hand. Or so I think... Since I'm behind there's no shame in seeing a flop and folding. I don't want to make him fat and dumb. I call the raise and we see a flop. The flop is a dream flop:
9♥

♥9
2♣

♣2
T♦

♦T

Dream flop, I'm ahead no matter what his hand is. The board texture looks like the drawing hand of two suited connectors with all the straight outs. I know he's going to bite if he has anything. I check. He bets out at the pot $5. I call. Trap is set. Turn card is a scare card.
9♥

♥9
2♣

♣2
T♦

♦T
7♥

♥7
Ok, this is not a good card. If he has AK he's not going to blow through me with a turn bet. But it is also a bluff card. So this could go either way. If he's a good player he's going to simmer his two pair and take a card off to see if he improves. I check again. Nope, he's a betting. He bets out $ 10. Clearly he thinks he's still ahead or he can't read a board. I want his whole stack. So to make it look bluffy, I insta-raise him. I make it $12 to play. That sets up his stack. Well to his credit, he does stop and think about it. I can hear the Chinese made gears working. He thinks I'm reraising to represent the straight. Of the three options, call, fold or reraise, he opts for the most insane one of all. He looks down at his stack and reraises all in. I insta-call. He feels proud about himself until he sees my cards. He has Kings
K♦

♦K
K♥

♥K
For some reason he seems to think he had a chance. He has 6 outs once to beat me or about 11% with one card. What the hell does he think I have? Why shove all in against a straight. I'm not betting my entire stack without a serious hand. Most regulars know that, so clearly he just hoped and prayed I was bluffing. Well, that doesn't happen too often. I get beat by ridiculous hands like this one. The river lets him off the hook.
9♥

♥9
2♣

♣2
T♦

♦T
7♥

♥7
2♠

♠2
Again, beat out of $100 by a donkey. The lesson here is: if you don't know you're leaping into a trap, why jump head first?