Hungarian Uber Donk #1

Here is my first Hungarian Uber Donk: paplan666
Playing a $1 buy-in 6-handed NLHE tournament on PokerStars, I'm about mid pack with 10015 in chips and big stack paplan666 with 34913 in chips raises from under the gun 3 big blinds. He's a tight player, probably because that's his skill level, so I'm looking for a monster flop with my bad hand:

K♣ ♣ ♣T

7♥ ♥ ♥7

I flop that monster: [Ks Kd 2s 9h] [Qc]

K♠ ♠ ♠K

K♦ ♦ ♦K

2♠ ♠ ♠2

Ok, other than Ace King which is a distinct possibility given his hand range, I'm beating everything. I've got him right where I want him. I've been playing 50% of my hands so I will get him to bite if he's behind. But just in case I'm losing and to set the trap, I check. Well he bets out about a third of the pot. Now, if I had Ace King, I'm not betting shit in position, I have the absolute nuts. Betting is pointless, you are going to scare off worse hands. You want them to call when you have the nuts. Now I know he doesn't have Ace King.The board looks bluffy with two spades so I do the ol' insta check raise all-in.
To his credit, he stops and thinks about it, but not really all that long. And assuming I might be bluffing and given he's got 20,000 more chips than me he calls. He calls with pocket nines!
Moron! I'm risking my tournament life before the money bubble. At best he's a slight favorite to suited four flush if I have the Ace of spades. But he's no sure winner here. I played so loose and aggressive it worked. And if he was paying attention, I only reraise with the nuts. There's nothing more nuts-like than three of a kind! Based on this information only he should fold. It's not smart to risk his chip dominance against a tricky player. But stupid buys it on a 7% hand. Literally 7% to win. Who's the idiot here?
Of course the board runs out and he wins:

K♣ ♣ ♣T

7♥ ♥ ♥7

I flop that monster: [Ks Kd 2s 9h] [Qc]

K♠ ♠ ♠K

K♦ ♦ ♦K

2♠ ♠ ♠2

9♥ ♥ ♥9

Q♣ ♣ ♣Q

So congratulations, paplan666, you've officially become the first patented uberbonk! Well played. I'm seriously thinking of changing the Pokerstars motto to : " Bad players, playing badly and getting rewarded for it."

The power of representation

Steve Silverman, a professional player with millions in poker earnings, still doesn't know the power of representation:

Steve is short stacked, about 10 big blinds at 3,000 / 6,000 1000 ante at the Spanish High Roller $50,000. He was a chip leader, played some hands poorly and got himself in a bind with blinds going up and his stack decreasing. He looks down at

T♥ ♥ ♥T

9♥ ♥ ♥9

in middle position, as first aggressor he goes all in for his remaining 33,000 chips. In the small blind, a Norwegian named Jensen calls with

K♠ ♠ ♠T

J♦ ♦ ♦J

Jensen calls all-in, there is 79,000 chips in the pot and he gets to see the hole cards. The flop comes down:

4♠ ♠ ♠4

5♥ ♥ ♥5

4♥ ♥ ♥4

Silverman shoved all in pre-flop. The board ran out and he didn't improve and he was eliminated short of the money bubble. Now replay the hand in your head, as Jensen, if Silverman had just raised 3* the big blinds, got a call from Jensen and THEN shoved on the flop.
Imagine you are Jensen. You have King Jack, not even Ace high, your opponent raises and then on this flop that missed you - and you must act first on out of position - the short stack goes all in.

4♠ ♠ ♠4

5♥ ♥ ♥5

4♥ ♥ ♥4

Go through Jensen's thought process. The all-in player could have an ace, he could have an overpair, he could even have 2 hearts. In all those cases, a King is a statistical underdog to win the hand. Remember this is a tournament you paid $50,000 to play and you don't want to double up short stacks if you can help it that just gives him more chances to get back in the game. You want to step on his neck and eliminate him!
Of course, with blinds so high it's possible that Jensen calls the all-in bet regardless because there is so little more to lose it's worth the risk. But because Silverman doesn't use the power of representation he didn't get the chance to put doubt in the mind of Jensen and didn't give himself every chance to win the hand. Even pros play sub-optimally, he's still not an expert!

My favourite hand, the Dead Man's

My favourite hand to bluff reraise hand is the Dead Man's hand:

Of course I am dog to any other ace. I know but if you are going to reraise a periodically with a bad hand it's better to have an ace in your hand. And God help you if you have Big Slick

A♦ ♦ ♦A

8♣ ♣ ♣8

And God help you if you have Big Slick on this board:

8♦ ♦ ♦8

K♦ ♦ ♦K

8♣ ♣ ♣8

And I have it

Russian Donk #1

Here is a bad Russian player:

Playing 0.5 / $1.0 tables on PokerStars.  Long time experienced poker player from Russia. I'm in the big blind and the aggressive TAP to my right in the small blind makes it $3 to play. Now, this guy doesn't know his own patterns. He raises 2.5BB normally. So this is suspicious. Looks like he wants me to play "I'm new to value town." What a fool. I may not have much money but I do know how to play. I look down at a weak hand.

I have

T♦ ♦ ♦T

7♦ ♦ ♦7

I know he's got a monster so if he is foolish I'm going to get him to pay off. I've got 80 and he's 100 blinds deep. I call. Flop comes down:

9♦ ♦ ♦9

8♦ ♦ ♦8

2♣ ♣ ♣2

Ok, this is a good straight and flush board so a good board to call at least one bet. Maybe even a straight flush. Of course, he has a monster and leads out for $6. Looks like Aces or Kings. Turn card is the joint.

9♦ ♦ ♦9

8♦ ♦ ♦8

2♣ ♣ ♣2

Q♦ ♦ ♦Q

I hope he's assuming I'm an idiot. He bets again, about $10 and now I insta-reraise him all in. He doesn't think about it, calls immediately and probably because he thought I had AQ or KQ, and also because he has the Ace of diamonds I guess he had a faint hope of a higher flush. Maybe because I had just lost a big pot to a lucky player he thought I was weaker than I was. Not sure , who can say. Well, he sees the bad news and I take down the pot.
As Phil Ivey once said, and it's very true, any player is dangerous. Assuming you are better than they are is a recipe for disaster.

Professional Motivations

Professional poker players don't want to play poker with you, they want to take your money. Remember that.

Turn bet semi-bluff on a flush draw

The turn bet semi-bluff:

This is not a hand specifically, but talks about a scenario that comes up many times. It has become a pattern that many players bet on the turn when they hit a four flush with their cards

Let's say this is your hand:

A♥ ♥ ♥A

T♥ ♥ ♥T

and you open as first aggressor with a reasonable 2.5* big blind (BB) bet. The blinds call and you see the flop in position. The dealer turns over:

9♥ ♥ ♥9

5♣ ♣ ♣5

K♦ ♦ ♦K

You miss, but in case they have small suited connectors you fire out a bet continuation bet on the flop. You get one caller the big blind. This concerns you, perhaps he has a King. You are hesitant what to do. Turn card is a flush and straight draw.

9♥ ♥ ♥9

5♣ ♣ ♣5

K♦ ♦ ♦K

Q♥ ♥ ♥Q

This card is an added equity card. He might have a King, perhaps a king with a weak kicker, or he might just be floating to try to take this away from you. He might have an underpair. With this flush card you may not have the best hand, but if you hit your hand, will this player want to risk more money with just an underpair? He also knows you will act last so if he doesn't like the final card - one that makes a flush or a draw - then will he want to continue? You have a chance to take this away right now. Depending on your player read, you need to make the bet at just the right amount. Too much and it looks like a semi-bluff. Too little and he's destined to call with pot odds. You make a 50% bet.

Now, take a look at this hand again, now think about it from your opponent's perspective. Let's say your opponent has:

K♣ ♣ ♣K

J♥ ♥ ♥J

9♥ ♥ ♥9

5♣ ♣ ♣5

K♦ ♦ ♦K

Q♥ ♥ ♥Q

Your bet makes sense as a semi-bluff, the chances both of you have a King is small. Although if you opponent has AK that bet size makes sense as well. You don't want to call off with a King and a weaker kicker all the time that's just a bad long term playing style. So if your opponent has a King, it makes sense to call. The fact is that more people make this play with two flush cards than with a King. Bottom line, this pattern has become so used that people will be able to extract information from this pattern and take money from you with the best hand. Information extraction is the secret of poker. The more predictable your patterns, then the more times people can put you on a hand and beat you.

A Bad Bluff

Here is a bad bluff:

Playing 0.5 / $1.0 tables on PokerStars.  Inexperienced player on my left calls my first aggressor raise.

I have

T♥ ♥ ♥T

T♦ ♦ ♦T

I raise it as first aggressor, make it $1.50, and then this guy in the small blind with only $20 at the table calls my raise. Not a great play, not a bad play. I know he's floating since he didn't raise me. Big blind folds. The flop is as always problematic for a middle pair:

9♦ ♦ ♦9

5♣ ♣ ♣5

K♦ ♦ ♦K

Problematic. No info on this guy's patterns, he just sat down, and there are lots of hands that aren't AK he could be holding. Since he has so little at the table, I decide to check call and see what he does. He does bet out $2. Well, that's easy, there is $5.80 in the pot (playing at a table with antes) and there is only one overcard to my pair. I call. Turn card is a blank.

9♦ ♦ ♦9

5♣ ♣ ♣5

K♦ ♦ ♦K

2♣ ♣ ♣2

I check to him again. He gives up. He doesn't bet. OK now I know he's got two diamonds or he's just on a fishing trip to see if I'll give up. Well, that's not going to happen. I'm not sure if he now thinks I've got the king or not, maybe he's got pocket threes, but I know I'm ahead. The river card is a perfect bluff card.

9♦ ♦ ♦9

5♣ ♣ ♣5

K♦ ♦ ♦K

2♣ ♣ ♣2

8♦ ♦ ♦8

I check to him again, and he checks behind. I win with a pair of tens. NO!!!! This was a perfect card to fire a bet. I didn't show much strength so my hand can't be that good. He had position on me - he got to act last. He bet on the flop, perhaps representing the flush, and now one comes in and he's not going to try to represent it. This is the perfect card to bet at no matter what his hand is. At least make it hard for me to see the river, I will still call because that's what you do in this game when you know you are ahead. But a good bet or even an all-in bet puts me to a decision. I think he convinced himself that I had the flush cards and when he did that, he lost his way. Well, if I had the flush cards then why didn't I continuation bet on the flop? I can't tell that story, I didn't have the hand! If you're going to fire out on a flop of two flush cards and a third one appears on the river you have backed into your imaginary hand - a flush. Don't bet the flop and then not bet the river. It makes no sense, you told me a story and I sorta believed you. Don't go and ruin it by not finishing it off! He lost his money that hand, called a few more times and then walked away with $10. I don't criticize him personally, but if you are going to play to win you must MUST make these plays. This is the mark of an inexperienced player - this hand right here tells me more about his patterns and his experience level that I can now use against him forever. This information I can use against him until he smartens up. And if you sit down at a poker table with $20 and everyone else has $100 well you have to expect to play for all your money when you enter a pot. I've got no problem reraising middle position raises all-in in that spot. I'm here to win, not spectate.

Chinese Donk #1

Story of my life....

Ok playing 0.5 / $1.0 tables on PokerStars.  Tight Chinese player on my left, I know he's tight I'm watching his stats.

I look down at

T♥ ♥ ♥T

9♠ ♠ ♠9

I raise it as first aggressor, make it $1.50, and then he insta-raises me $3. He reraises me so its obvious he has a big hand. Or like Aces, Kings, Queens, or maybe AK. I figure it's AK since that's more likely and so it's most likely a race. I'm behind but if I catch him hes probably to dumb to dump his hand. Or so I think... Since I'm behind there's no shame in seeing a flop and folding. I don't want to make him fat and dumb. I call the raise and we see a flop. The flop is a dream flop:

9♥ ♥ ♥9

2♣ ♣ ♣2

T♦ ♦ ♦T

Dream flop, I'm ahead no matter what his hand is. The board texture looks like the drawing hand of two suited connectors with all the straight outs. I know he's going to bite if he has anything. I check. He bets out at the pot $5. I call. Trap is set. Turn card is a scare card.

9♥ ♥ ♥9

2♣ ♣ ♣2

T♦ ♦ ♦T

7♥ ♥ ♥7

Ok, this is not a good card. If he has AK he's not going to blow through me with a turn bet. But it is also a bluff card. So this could go either way. If he's a good player he's going to simmer his two pair and take a card off to see if he improves. I check again. Nope, he's a betting. He bets out $ 10. Clearly he thinks he's still ahead or he can't read a board. I want his whole stack. So to make it look bluffy, I insta-raise him. I make it $12 to play. That sets up his stack. Well to his credit, he does stop and think about it. I can hear the Chinese made gears working. He thinks I'm reraising to represent the straight. Of the three options, call, fold or reraise, he opts for the most insane one of all. He looks down at his stack and reraises all in. I insta-call. He feels proud about himself until he sees my cards. He has Kings

K♦ ♦ ♦K

K♥ ♥ ♥K

For some reason he seems to think he had a chance. He has 6 outs once to beat me or about 11% with one card. What the hell does he think I have? Why shove all in against a straight. I'm not betting my entire stack without a serious hand. Most regulars know that, so clearly he just hoped and prayed I was bluffing. Well, that doesn't happen too often. I get beat by ridiculous hands like this one. The river lets him off the hook.

9♥ ♥ ♥9

2♣ ♣ ♣2

T♦ ♦ ♦T

7♥ ♥ ♥7

2♠ ♠ ♠2

Again, beat out of $100 by a donkey. The lesson here is: if you don't know you're leaping into a trap, why jump head first?

Information Extraction - short stack calls

Don't analyze short stack calls, when an opponent is forced to call due to a shorter stack going all in normally in a tournament, as a hand of any importance for understanding how an opponent thinks. 

For the desperation shover, the one with the short stack trying to double up or go home, it doesn't mean much because they are forced by the pot odds to call versus folding and the remaining big blinds.  It's a mathematical reality - either you double up or you won't survive long enough to make the money either way.

For the short stack calling  person - most likely the big blind with pot odds to call and a weak hand - because they are simply calling to make sure the short stack doesn't get the chips with no resistance.  If I am holding 87 off suit and I am getting 5:1 on a call I am calling that short stack even though my hand might be a dominated 30% or even 20% hand.  It's 20% chance to take out a player with good pot odds.  If you get lucky then he's out. If you don't he's just doubled up to a few big blinds. It's a hand that plays itself.

But as a data point to decide what either player is, or how they play, it is meaningless. Since it is an automatic play for both players, it is nothing significant.

Playing Chicken

Sometimes when you are down to heads up, you need to play chicken more than count on cards.  By that point in the tournament, you should know what kind of betting your opponent will call and what kinds he will fold to.  Some people can see through all-in betting.  Some people are more weary of pot sized betting.  Some people think that value bets are the suspicious.

You need to find out what the betting pattern is the most fearsome to your opponent.

So you are in fact, when in first aggressor position, going to play chicken and not cards. 

Poker karmic body slam

Ok, I just watched this Russian player make about thirty bad decisions in a row. He takes his time, which suggests he's thinking, and then he does the exact opposite of what you should do. So he's not thinking.

But do you know what the worst part is?
He gets reraised by a guy sitting patiently for cards ( AKA waiting for a monster) and then decides to get cute and bluff reraise. Of course shark reraised all-in at this point. So Russian thinker goes in tank  for a while. And comes out with a call.

Shark turns over KK.
"Thinker" turns over KQ.

Flops comes. Queen. Three. Queen.

That's a karma body slam!

WCOOP 18 on Pokerstars

I just won a satellite to the WCOOP online poker tournament on Pokerstars. I played a $2.20 rebuy tourney and won a $320 ticket. I got really lucky not to finish 5th and out of the tickets. Still, that would mean $109 so not bad. It's on a Friday in September and I work so perhaps i'll just take the cash and play more lower buy-ins.

Definition of Luck - Convergence of factors

So, anyone that has read my blog might find it a little strange I complained about luck.  Luck is a fuzzy undefined thing so when a person that prides themself on tactics and pattern recognition uses it, well it sounds like I've gone over to other side and next I'm going to discuss pixies and dark magic like a crazy person.

Well, here's my definition of luck - a convergence of negative factors (or positive factors depending on which side you are on).  So when circumstances are largely in your favour - you are 85% all-in with a 85% hand and on the river you lose - that's what I meant by luck. When some situation goes all your way or all against you at a critical time.

Another example. I'm playing at the $70 Caesar's Palace tournament and I scrape into the money with the final 34 players.  It just so happens that I'm the big blind on the very next hand when I have to put 50% of my chips in.  I am now the shortest stack at the table.  From early position, a player raises big and the next player reraises him.  I look down at A-8o.  Of course I really should call, because at this point I'm not quite pot committed but if I don't call I'm left with very little chips.  My read on the situation is two big hands that want to dance for all the chips.  Since I know I'm less than a 33% favourite to win I fold.

I watch the flop come A - K - 8.  First aggressor had Kings and his neighbor had Aces.  This is what I mean by luck.  If the bet was smaller and I just called I would have been out on that hand regardless. The only winning play was to fold and I made it.  On the very next hand, now with a tiny stack, the button raises minimum and I shove with the best hand K6s versus QJo. I knew he was stealing and I knew I was ahead and really had one play left.  But if I hadn't just been decimated I might have waited for a better situation. But I could see little cards for an hour and I only had one orbit left. Even so, my hand was about a 60% favourite so it was the right play. He was pot committed to call me and that's great because I'm ahead and need the double up. Of course he hit a Jack to win.  That's my luck on that tournament.  If the two hands together didn't happen in that order maybe I go on to win the tournament?  

So when I talk of luck, I'm really talking about the time history around the current situation. If you bluff and get caught one hand then wake up with Aces - that's luck - a convergence of factors that lead to an opportunity to use your bluffing image to your advantage.

I have the worst luck...no kidding

I just lost to a set of Kings, with pocket Aces, in a $215 buy-in on Full Tilt. I did everything right.

Everyone claims they are unlucky. Well how about this?

Pocket Kings moron, name not needed, from early position raises big, I look down at pocket aces and the guy beside me calls so I don't want to play a 3 way pot. Or more.  I am in the middle of the chips stack pack, so I have a bigger than tournament average stack and I don't want to play a higher risk hand when all I want is to take down the pot. I was in middle position so I had 4 people behind me left to act. I was trying to mitigate the risk to my pair. Shutting out players is what you need to do so no one else flops a set and wipes you out.

In addition, if the first aggressor had a big pair I can make my hand look like AK trying to take a small pot. I reraise all in - not 3 or four bet - to make the effect I want.  Why would a big pair go all in? The pattern looks like a big Ace from a big stack trying to take down a small pot.  The guy with pocket kings or queens is salivating at the chance to double up.

Well, guess what, he bit on the bait so bad it hurt him. He had exactly the right hand and he made exactly the wrong play.  He was all in with Kings against Aces. I did everything right.  I blocked out all other players. I suckered him in.  He was drawing dead to 2 Kings. And he hit it on the river. King on the river to make a full house.  Un-effing-believable.

This is why I'm not a rich poker player - because the worst case scenarios always happen to me. Always.  Stupid players walk away with the chips and they had no idea how lucky they were. Or they do and look foolish but who cares then right, they make stupid plays, I make them commit then they walk away with the chips.  It gets really really tiring.  I didn't even mention I had to fold Aces earlier on when the fish on my left flopped a flush.  Twice in one tourney Aces cracked. Twice in 115 hands. That's my luck.

When it comes to skill, I got a set of tens to go all in against my Broadway.  I got a 6 high straight to call a reraise on my Ace high flush.  I can play.

But if you have a big stack call my all-in with 62 suited, you're sure to crack my pocket Eights.


NB:  The player that cracked my aces didn't even make the money.  That hurts even worse!

A Fearsome Player Image

One of the most fearsome player images to hold is the merciless chip leader.  If you have a huge chip lead that means tangling with you could mean game over on any hand.  That is enough to make most people pause before they call your raise.  That doubt can be used to make people lay down good hands close to the money bubble as they would rather try and hang on.

This is a huge advantage to use for your enrichment.  This is when you can raise with garbage and get away with it.

But a truly fearsome reputation is that you have such a huge chip lead AND you will call someone with any hand just to knock them out. If the other opponents watch you call with bad aces, suited connectors, and hit hands to wipe out short stacks, then they know they can't reraise your raise - you're calling. They can't desperation shove your big blind - you're calling.  They take their tournament life in their hands playing against you.

Of course if they have a premium hand they will want you to call.  And they will see you double up players some of the time.  But if you are also wiping players out in rapid succession then that's just too much for people. They will want to give you a wide lane. They will take their chances against other players they think they will have a chance against.

This is the perfect time to raise and take down pots with junk hands.  Keep pushing till they push back.

This is not a bad beat.

Ok I read the byline on this video and it claims

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sbE_-F3k9bA

to be a bad beat story of one AceKing flushing against another AceKing. One had the ace of clubs and the other had the ace of spades. The flop and turn made a flush. One player, Koroknai - a rather odious sneaky player- doubled up.

This is not a bad beat for several reasons. Both players four-bet shoved preflop knowing that they had two high cards in case the other had a pair. They both knew they were doubled suited and that was part of the thought process. They factored in the flush and straight outs into their play. They were 50% - 50 % before the flop. Most times it ends in a tie but even if they played the flop and saw 3 clubs would either lay down the hand?  I doubt it. So even on the turn both would have known they had a flush with the highest cards in the suit. Not knowing how high the flush of Koroknai was on the turn and with so many chips in the middle Ladouceur would not give up at that point.

A good play or bad play is based on how much information is available at the time of the decision.
That's the real factor: how much information was used and when it was applied.
This is not a bad beat.

A bad beat is when someone hangs around for a royal flush when they are drawing to one out. Knowing you are practically drawing dead and still playing and getting rewarded.  That's a bad beat. 

Information Denial - check in the dark

One way to deny any information about your hand is to check before you see the next card.

Usually, players bet when a card improves their hand and check when it doesn't.  In most cases that makes sense since you want to invest more when it suits you and lose less when it doesn't.  But acting on the card either way gives away more information than not acting on the card.

Therefore, when you have to go first and you don't want to give free information then checking in the dark will accomplish that for you. Maybe that flush card made your hand.  Maybe you made the straight.  But for your opponents it's harder to guess that when you give them no information first to act.

I talk about information in my upcoming poker book, due out this summer. 

Vegas Poker - $130 NLHE at Caesar's Palace

Last tournament I played, I started at noon on Sunday for the $130 NLHE at Caesar's Palace.

I started out at a table of fish, so I fished with the rest of them.  I chipped up with a few lucky hands from the starting 15,000 to about 23,000 in the first hour.  That set the tone for me, I chipped up slowly except for a couple of setbacks. I wiped out a loose aggressive player with a flopped straight versus top pair. I bluffed a weak player with a well timed reraise.   I was above the average for most of the afternoon.  I kept up pressure and then lost a big hand to the table chip leader. Ugh he would not fold anything. That cost me my comfortable standing so I went into survival mode. I wasn't beat but I didn't make any mistakes.

 After 4PM, I was above chip average again until I got called by a desperate player and my pocket Aces made the full house.  I folded KQs and could have taken out 2 players and I regret not calling it would have cost me only 25% of my stack.

From 4PM till 5PM, I was absolutely card dead as the blinds rose and rose. Suddenly my superior chip stack was now somewhere in the middle of the pack. I didn't give up.  At dinner break I was maybe 7 blinds deep.  I went to see my wife and said I wouldn't be long.
Back from break I decided to go all in with A-rag, six deuce, and pocket jacks in the first 3 hands. Now I was back in the race.  I changed tables and looked down at pocket Queens. I raised under the gun and got reraised all-in by a loose player that was a chip leader at my original table and now was short stacked.  He turned over pocket nines and I sent him packing.  Now I was the table chip leader.  I made some moves to gain some chips and then survived to the money bubble. I made the money and then had to fold an ace to kings and Aces.  I survived that hand in the big blind, but that left me short stacked and shoved with K9s in the small blind.  I lost to a lucky QJ and was out in 34 place. 

Not bad for a field of 271 players.

Vegas Poker $340 Deep Stack NLHE at Aria

Ok, after playing in a donkfest at the Caesar's Palace, I headed back to the room for a break and then onto the Aria Hotel for the afternoon.  I played in the special $340 NLHE tournament in the afternoon. Starting stacks were 15,000 but I was in the game after an hour so many players were way ahead of me.

One point, don't play on a table full of fish and then play the same way at the table full of sharks.  I didn't hit any flop in the first ten hands and short stacked myself.  But also nothing hit, my best hand of two pair was a gabage 9-5 offsuit.  Not a good start.  I made it two hours but it's hard to catch up to 35,000 stacks with tight players that will only put chips in the middle when they are ahead.

I was in a three way pot in the BB with AK off and decided to shove for 5,000 remaining.  I got snap called by the large stack holding pocket sevens and was out.  As it turned out the small blind and the under the gun raiser had a big decision so I'm guessing either one or both had an ace.  I should have factored it in to my decision. But really at this point I was a short stack.

I know reraising with big slick is an obvious tell. I know for a few chips more a big stack is not going to fold to the overbet.  It's not really an option.  You need chips badly and this is one of the premium hands.  You may not know your opponent but the worst case scenarion is general is a lower pocket pair.  Yes sometimes it's aces and that will happen. But in general you are in a race to double up and stay in it or finish.  A tournament needs races to go your way at some point in the tournament.  If you don't hit your hand that's the reality.
It seems like a bad play with a draw but a large stack can just keep firing on all streets and make you give up without seeing the river. That's just as likely. So if he does just have a pair you are still in it to the end. Sure sometimes it's a set but that's so rare you can't really consider it when you are short stacked.  You also have to consider that reraising all in will make some hands fold to let you get some chips some of the time and also they are calling not seeing the flop.  You are denying them information - maybe this flop they hit a set or two pair and you have no expected value from your hand.

Plus you can't play scared. Scared money doesn't make money.

Vegas Poker $70 NLHE at Caesar's Palace

I went to Vegas to play some live tournaments and test my skills against the various casino regulars and tourists.

Las Vegas is always fun because you can see all kinds players.  And you can play all kinds of games. The table make-up changes a lot based on the casino and the buy-in amount.  It makes for a very different experience depending on what type you choose to play.

My first tournament was the 9am $70 NLHE tourney at Caesar's Palace on the Las Vegas Strip.

This tourney is sort of a donk-fest. I mean the blind structure is so fast with 15 minute levels that even the chip leader gets short stacked very quickly. This makes for an exciting game if you don't know what you are doing and you are happy to throw your chips in with little or no hope of winning

I sat down and doubled up twice in three hands with a flopped full house and top pair hands.  It was a good start.  Of course, since this was full of people that didn't know how to play, I had to expect extra donkiness.  I raised a short stack with pocket sixes, and he comes over the top all in with 2-3 hearts...  OMG.
Of course, he makes the river flush and doubles up.  Then he doubles up again through me and now I'm an average stack at the table.  So I play tighter and make it from  the original 32 down to the final 9 players. 

Short on chips, under 5 BB and 3 away from the money, I shoved with pocket 77 and, of course, the good player beside me wakes up with KK and knocks me out. 

Oh, and that donkey? Yeah, he called a huge reraise  he hit an ace on the flop against a tight player to knock out pocket JJ and become a chip leader.  Here's hoping he comes back to play me again.

Always Take Your Time!

Sometimes poker players feel rushed to make a decision, but if you look at the most successful grinders they take as much time as they need.  Sure, online they give you scant seconds to make a hard call and this can cost you because you may be ahead and how do you know if you don't take the time to run through the hand.

Never feel like you can't take the time to act.  It is costly otherwise.  IF you are online and you need more time then don't play so many tables at once.  Play as many as you can handle if two or so had really important decisions at the same time. You need to be able to make the right call and that will mean replaying the hand over and over.  Take the time!

Guinness World Record Pokerstars.com

I entered the Pokerstars Guinness World Record NL Hold'em tournament.  It had 225,000 entrants. I made it to the final 11,000 players. Made it to the top 4%.

I was running good, I didn't get too lucky and my big pairs weren't cracked.  Then I made a mistake with pocket Tens, calling an all in and then folding to a bigger pair. That caused me to lost half my stack.  So I waited, got Aces under the gun and went all in with my remaining 11,000 chips.  Of course, some Russian donkey with 110,000 calls with King Jack and makes a straight.  It was as good a chance to double up as you can get: one opponent, 80% favorite, and forced out all other speculative hands.

Never be upset if you get your money in that good and lose.

Min reraises

Of all the ways you can be raised, the min reraise is the most fearsome.  It is just double the bet you just made, so it is giving you just the right pot odds to call almost any hand. Even a gut-shot straight draw.

But that's why you shouldn't unless you are also holding a good hand.

Of course the min reraise is now a favoured bluff technique because it's more of an information reraise.  But you shouldn't attempt those too often.  Not many people have the intestinal fortitude to double barrel bluff so you should take all min reraises by most normal players as a serious show of strength and the perfect reliable information with which to decide.

Thinking of Aces

When I was starting out, I used to assume my opponent had Aces. It seemed like a conservative way to play.

Big mistake.  If someone gets aces about once every 220 hands, then assuming someone has Aces is going to be wrong more times that not. 

Does this mean someone won't get Aces twice in three hands? No, I've been wiped out by loose players that just happened to get that lucky;  what went through my head was - " Hell, he can't have Aces twice in a row."  Well, he did.

But in general, 219 hands out of 220 on average, it's better to assume your opponent never has Aces. Only when you eliminate all the other reasonable hands should you consider he has that overpair.

Bluff Barrels

Ok I watched this video by a poker player that details what he thinks

Poker Barrel Bluffs

about bluffing and his poker player types. He's referring to how many streets a player will bluff at you based on how they play.  He thinks:

A NIT fires one bluff ( e.g. a one-barrel bluff)
A TAG fires 2 bluffs (2 barrel bluff)
A LAG fires 3 bluffs (3 barrels - all the way to river)
A DONKEY fires Infinite (bet bet bet bet)

Now on the face of it, this seems well reasoned. But here's the problem.  If you start thinking in terms of limits and constraints this may seem like a rationale idea.  But here's the problem.  If your opponent looks back at the history and sees you only call 2 streets then no matter what you do they are going to fire three.  You have become predictable.  Your predictability has become a weakness.

This is the kind of fixed frame thinking that will lead to people beating you.

Sometimes I bluff once.  Sometimes I keep bluffing.  If I think people are calling on the flop hoping I shut down on the river, then I will reraise them on the turn after I check.
 By announcing how you play, no matter what your tendencies, you give your opponent more information.

Wild Bill Hickok

Will Bill epitomizes the greatest poker players.  He was fearless, determined to see a showdown to the end, and died doing what he was good at.

Wild Bill Hickok

The Dead Man's hand, the famous Aces and Eights, is a personal favourite of mine because you can stack off some foolish Big Slick with hidden two pair.

Live versus Online Poker

There is no real definitive answer to which form of poker is better.  The decision is largely academic  and down to your personal preferences.

Live tournaments allow you more data from your opponent's presence you can't get online. Live tournaments in general offer you more time to think, and consider your opponent. Live tournaments mean you are stuck playing one game at a time. Live tournaments require travel, hotel room expenses, away from home.  You miss out on your family and your home.

Online tournaments give you more computer tools to supplement the current hand. Online tournaments have the tightest rules on reacting, so much you will find yourself timing out with hard decisions. Online poker gives you multiple tables at once. In fact, in online poker you can play on multiple websites simultaneously. Online poker can be played in your bathrobe in the bathtub (Yes, I've done it). The most flexibility with the hardest rules governing your play.

Heads Up Final Table... Part 2

Ok I was playing just a generic $3.30  ($1000 guaranteed) tournament last night on Full Tilt Poker when I should have been sleeping.  I was just clocking some time on a cash table and said, what the heck, I'll just enter a cheap touranment just in case I get some really good cards.

Well, I played well and ran good so I ended up in the money.  At that point, instead of playing conservatively I played suicidal right after the money bubble because I wanted to go to sleep.  Well, this worked in the opposite way...  I placed second in the tourney.

I knocked out a couple of people in the process and had a table chip lead.  But I was super aggressive - going all in against players trying to make the the final table so they avoided me to a point.  It worked so well I sailed into the final table while the other players had to hang on to diminishing chip stacks. 

I could have won it had I played a little smarter with 3 people left, I doubled up the eventual winner a couple of times, but I was really really tired and wanted to sleep!  And I ran into Aces on the final hand, but I'm pretty happy with a $160 win for a $3.30 entry.

N.B.  It may seem magical to read how " lucky" I am in these posts, but you must consider I am a super-experienced player.  I just haven't devoted my life to being a "rounder".  If you start out and can't make a final table twice in two days it's understandable.  I didn't either a few years ago. But I have learned how to do it. Even with a low buy-in, in both tournaments the player field was about 300 people, not a sit&go of one table, so it wasn't that easy either.

Heads up Final Table

I just won the Extralator Sunday night on Full Tilt Poker.  No big deal.  I had played really tight until we were down to 64 of about 300 players. Paid $15 to win about $300.
Anyways, when I got to the final table it was all-in or nothing most of the time and since I had played so tight early on - I even took a half hour break playing no cards - that  they gave me respect.

But when I got heads up I was super aggressive.  Now, it wasn't without reason, I was using my player image and the other runner up had doubled me up calling with fours when I had Kings.  He had seen me only show top hands to win pots. This is the power of player image.  When we started heads up, he was slightly ahead of me in chips after knocking out the third player.  I had about 170,000 and he had about 190,000.  Now when chip stacks are about even it is really a question of who gets the best cards first.  It's sort of like a gunfight duel.  I had just gotten Aces and Kings at the final table so I wasn't expecting much in the way of cards. In heads up you both have position and both have the chance to represent the flop. So the only advantages you can get are luck - that you can't control - and skill.

It just so happened I made a full house Queens over eights while my opponent had the nut flush.  I wanted to go all in but that would have been too big a bet for the pot.  I wanted a call more than a fold and he hesitated so he didn't want to give up the lead either.  My third pot value bet got paid off by nut flush and I was the chip leader.

I decided not to rely on cards from then on.  In fact, I flopped three full houses in the next seven flops.  Total luck fest.  But that's not where I made most of my chips.  Those were call and fold hands. When I made chip leader I went all in with any suited cards and put the shorter stack to the test whenever I played. If he raised first I reraised all in to make him decide. Otherwise I folded. It worked. He folded lots of chips to me in the process of me working to about 140% his stack.

 He told me after, " I guess I gave you too much respect..."  He was right.  I reasoned that I need to lose two big pots to lose but he couldn't afford to lose one. So he folded until he had an ace and got fed up. I had 9-5 diamonds and he had Ace four offsuit.  I made the last full house Fives over Nines to win.  But if I had lost I would just go all-in and either regain even chips or lose.  Either way he had to beat me twice to win, but he couldn't afford one loss. That is the power of first aggressor as I call it first position. I went first all in or reraised all in to make the decision his not mine.  He played rationally and folded.  He didn't want to commit unless he was sure he was going to win. But those kind of hands are so rare he was going to be out of chips before that happened. In the end he made a pair of aces and it didn't matter.

Like I said with even chip stacks it's really a coin flip to win. But if you play smart you can increase your advantage to win.

If your opponent has a better hand, you will hear about it

Good hands are rare.  So when your opponent gets a better hand than top pair, you will hear about it.  At some point you will be reraised.  Since good hands are rare then these are the times everyone will try to extract the most value. 

The most important fact is most people don't have the courage to bet like they have the nuts without it.

So in general, if you get reraised, you are being put to the test.

Tournament Chip Bully

You may not likea tournament chip bully - someone with 100 big blinds or more - but they serve a useful purpose.  It is annoying to be raised and reraised by someone who can price you out of a reasonable hand.  And it gets tiresome watching that person rake more and more chips in the early levels of a tournament. It seems like karmic redistribution left you out of the riches stacked up in front of them.  And it feels like everything you do when you oppose them is subject to be your last move at the tournament.

And that's exactly why you need them.

Tournaments are full of good players who can wait around with small stacks - playing disciplined poker -  waiting for aces or kings and survive into the money.  But not everyone can make it to the money - you don't want that.  You need people to be robbed of their chances ( their inevitable kings or aces) before they get there and double up.

Enter the chip bully. He or she will raise you with middle pair or call your all in with a straight draw not because they are foolish but because they are doing their best to eliminate players.  You want those players out as much as they do.  Chip bullies got their massive stacks by outsmarting or outlucking players early on and they just keep their foot on the gas pedal trying to  get rid of the rest of you.  That's the job of a chip leader - weed out the foolish.

Here is the reality: a chip bully may have a better chance of making the money than the average player waiting for good cards.  Sure, if they are not just foolish they can pause if their stack gets too small and just coast into the money.

But after the money bubble and before the final table there is no guarantee they will make the final table.  During the post-money bubble phase, there will be lots of people going all-in and doubling with races like Aces versus kings, suited connectors versus pairs and so on.  And so at this point people who were passively riding out the bubble may develop as many chips as an early chip bully. Suddenly a chip bully with a superior stack runs into aces, and then kings. Or loses a race and becomes just an average stack.  Then they have no more advantage than the rest of the players.  Sometimes they do worse than normal because they are so used to winning with marginal hands they don't know how to slow down and wait for cards.

So remember that next time you are frustrated by a chip bully.  They are your ally to the money.

Full Tilt Poker - Tournament Patience Factor

Full Tilt Poker - Tournament Patience Factor

I made a simple spreadsheet to calculate the patience factor for various no limit Hold'em tournaments for curiosity.  It was hard to find the tournament blind structures for all but I did manage to make a simple one for a generic 3000 starting chip tournament. 

As you may know, the patience factor is a number that is a rough guide to how patient you can be - basically sit and wait for a good hand - until your chips run out.  This is a measure based on your starting chips, the blind structure, how long you think a hand will take, and so on.  It's not perfect but it gives you an idea if you need to start making moves with weaker hands or if you can wait for the right situation. It can help you figure out which tournaments are better for you.

For an online 3000 chip tournament on Full Tilt Poker with an estimated 5 minutes to play each hand, then you get a patience factor of about 1.75 hours. 

The Bigger, The Harder

There are lots of truism about poker; the one the occurred to me today was just a simple as the bigger the buy-in, the bigger the stakes then the better the players.  That doesn't mean that all the players are on the same level.  It doesn't mean that you won't get lucky or unlucky.  It doesn't mean you won't have a good run of cards or not. 

What the better poker players means is that you will have to outthink, contest more, and risk more to do well. And the higher you go then the worse it gets.  People will figure you out if they have you outclassed, if they are a better memory, or if they are better at creating self doubt.  If you look around the table and everyone else is more experienced or skillful, then who do you think they are ready to prey on? 

So when you are starting out it would be foolish and costly to play at stake with players that are out of your league.  It's like trying to play against world class sports players when you started last week.  Play at the lowest levels first because that's where you can expect to almost break even. 

Trapping yourself

Poker hands are one form of gambling where the odds you are winning vary moment to moment but the payoff is capped. If you are playing against one opponent then the most you can win in any one hand (ignoring the blinds) is double up. And the worst you can do is lose what you have. 

If you were betting on horse racing and put $20 on a 100 to 1 odds (1% ) underdog, you lose $20 most times but maybe you can win $200 for that same race.  The fact is your odds don't change moment to moment.

Top pair, top kicker is winning most hands on the flop, with a winning percentage of maybe 60% or more. But with flush card or straight cards to draw to, your hand value can fall to 0%.

So while a sure thing like top pair, top kicker may be good on the flop, it tends to turn into a worthless hand from time to time.  Sinking more money on a beaten hand is worse than a low odds play- you may be trapping yourself to lose money on a worthless hand. 

People talk about trapping with big hands, sets, straight flushes and so on.  But the most important trap detection skill is the everyday avoiding bad board textures that will beat top pair hands.

Tilt Factor

I guess the one human condition that can be exploited universally is when people lose control. We ALL lose control; some are better than others at containing their emotions.  Some are masters of repression. But in general; most people have a range of feelings that will come on under stress, duress, hurt feelings and the like. Emotions lead to the older biological side of our brains taking over and suppressing the cooler rational parts of our brain.

One of the worst things to do at the poker table is lose control of your emotions.  That is the easiest way to make a mistake. Mistakes are made when people don't think about all the factors that go into a big decision; they just make a decision.  Big mistake.  When your livelihood rests on interpreting others then you have to think through all their actions, and why they made them.  How can you do that if you are not sane?

Look at the elite poker table and the players there all look like they got free samples at the Zoloft convention. Not a lot of action going on even though people are winning other people's money or tournament chips worth $1000's of dollars.
Imagine what it would take a to make a bunch of millionaires become unemotional drones?  Simple, it's a learned response.  They all had great victories and crushing defeats and came to the conclusion that hey, it's a lot easier if you are not fighting your emotions along the way as well.  They realized it just makes more money for them if they turn it off at the door. Put another way, of all the poker wannabes out there maybe the best of them prevailed BECAUSE they could keep their emotions in check?

So if you know you can put someone on tilt - to play emotionally - then why not do it?

If you know that you can be put on tilt, then why let them do it to you?

Phil Hellmuth: Upper Class Twit of the Year

I've always marvelled at the ego and arrogance of the greatest poker players. Yes, some of them are nice people - most of them I'm sure - but some of them simply can't fit in the same room with their ego.  Sometimes all the glory that comes along with just being luckier from time to time can mistake that fortune for pure skill.

Take Phil Hellmuth.  His over the top antics have amused me for years. He feels the need to explain to everyone that tricks him how badly they played and how much he deserved to win instead.  Funny stuff.  Just look at the video( Phil Hellmuth, cry baby! ) to see what kind of antics follow being outdrawn. Of course Tom Dwan doesn't lack ego either but at least he's got some perspective.

...or...

or

I could go on...

But now I've figured out what Phil Hellmuth's problem is.  He has become so used to the rarefied air of professional poker players is that he feels entitled to win.  He has an entitlement to your money.  In his eyes, you only have a slim chance to beat him while you are basking in his magnificence.  It's not a competition, it's a donation.

This explains why he has such a problem with people fighting back. They didn't read the memo, it's simply not done!  There was a comedy skit that, to me, reminds me of the antics of Phil Hellmuth:   Upper Class Twit of the Year

These twits couldn't figure out the rules either.

The professional advantage

There are two traits that can separate the good from the bad, and the ugly when it comes to poker skill.  To understand and to master them is the goal of any good player.

What they aren't is luck. Luck is universal.  Bad luck too. The card distribution you see is going to make you lucky and unlucky - make you look like a genius and a fool alternating with a roller coaster of swings.

The two key traits are patience and observation.

Patience means the willingness to wait for better times, better cards or better opportunities to make things happen. If you get upset or flustered and just do something stupid it will cost you more. It means taking a bad beat with a smile and laughing it off. It means pushing back from the table to regroup.

Observation means the willingness to watch and record everything you see, hear and smell at the poker table.  You need to go over and over the hands as they played out and understand why they did what they did when they did it. Does that make sense? Maybe you weren't paying attention?

You need to know if the player understands what a flush is and whether or not they are afraid of one. You need to know if they will call you with just one pair on the board.

How to Deal With Donkeys

Poker is full of people with different experience, skill, and comprehension.  It's a skill like riding a bike and some people can jump a gorge with a bike and others can barely deal with keeping it upright.

So the question is, when it comes to bad players, is how do you deal with them?  There are some that will not understand why their play was foolish, or how you tricked them into doing something dumb.

Here is the reality; some of them will never understand how badly they played. Some will get it and look back and realize the stupidity.  Hitting a 2 outer or even a one outer to beat you may not have been realized, but they are so busy raking in the chips they won't consider the incredible luck they had.

The reality is: every one who sits down is dangerous.  You cannot stop that. You cannot avoid risk in a risky endeavour like gambling. 

Since you can't change anything about either the cards or your opponents then you have to be able to overcome the adversity and not let it affect you.  Instability leads to bad decisions on your part that you will need luck to sort out. And if you're good you are trying not to just "get lucky". You are trying to exploit the weakness when the advantage is yours.