Example of Psychological Counter Strategy

0.0.1 Counter Strategy

Here is an example of counter strategy - not playing the percentages and likely hand ranges like everyone teaches but instead playing player psychology. A tight Russian player raises from early. There is a middle caller who’s also a regular. I look down at  

 I am in the small blind so I think about calling. I recognize the first aggressor is normally tight so I don’t position reraise. I just call to see the flop and hope for a monster.

 

Naturally I am ahead of both players with the nuts. I know that tight Russian #1 might have a pair of aces. Other player has unknown since he was calling. I am sure if first aggressor has aces that he will lay them down to protect his stack if he thinks he'’s behind. 

 

There is a flush draw so I want to protect my hand. But more importantly, I want to trick them into thinking I am bluffing. There are two spades and the most likely play is reraise with two spades. Now, here is the psychology. The tendency is to protect an overpair. The tendency of all these pros is to assume the player has flush draw with an all-in. And the most important tendency is: someone goes all-in on a draw only and not a made hand. They always assume someone is bluffing if they go all in. If you had a made hand you would not want to push people off the pot. That makes them blind to the possibility that they are beaten. 

I am in the small blind to I am first to act.

I lead into the pot 60%.

That bet leads to a pot-sized reraise from the first aggressor. The middle player also calls which is confusing but OK.

Without much time, I reraise both of them all-in. That also looks suspicious, I am acting in the way they expect but not in the way they think.

The tight Russian calls without thinking. The other pro thinks about it for a moment and calls as well.

That was the entire hand, the rest is unimportant. Whether or not I win this hand, the point is I got two professional players to commit their stacks on the wrong impression. They turn over their hands. They made a wrong decision and were the ones behind, but were made to think they were ahead.

Tight Russian has  

  and the other hapless pro has

so at least he was drawing to win. But he's a 30% at best.  This is how you can triple up against "good" players.  It's not about ranges in any one hand, it's about out thinking them. They do the same action over and over and over. They aren't even thinking anymore.

Tight Russian is drawing dead. Hapless pro is drawing to the full house. Board runs out: 

I tripled up

      ♢

Get a chip lead, then go conservative

I was watching a rerun of the old 2013 NBC National Heads Up Championship, and it occured to me that Liv Boeree has forgotten how to play the cards at all.  She ran up a huge lead by aggression, which was well deserved apart from a flopped full house.  But then instead of tending the three to one chip lead she continued to make aggressive moves on her opponent.  She didn't need to.

And then she ran into on better hand and lost.

The reality in online poker is you make moves to get ahead and limit the chances you will be eliminated, then you sit on that lead until you get the cards to put your opponent away. 

Making moves when you are ahead is a pure luck play, you can't win every hand. That's why you need to make moves to begin with. But that's not the way to win.