When I was starting out, I used to assume my opponent had Aces. It seemed like a conservative way to play.
Big mistake. If someone gets aces about once every 220 hands, then assuming someone has Aces is going to be wrong more times that not.
Does this mean someone won't get Aces twice in three hands? No, I've been wiped out by loose players that just happened to get that lucky; what went through my head was - " Hell, he can't have Aces twice in a row." Well, he did.
But in general, 219 hands out of 220 on average, it's better to assume your opponent never has Aces. Only when you eliminate all the other reasonable hands should you consider he has that overpair.
Poker wisdom, stories, and anything that runs into my mind. I used to talk tactics, but now I use tactical thinking applied to poker.
