Saturday, May 18, 2013

Trapping yourself

Poker hands are one form of gambling where the odds you are winning vary moment to moment but the payoff is capped. If you are playing against one opponent then the most you can win in any one hand (ignoring the blinds) is double up. And the worst you can do is lose what you have. 

If you were betting on horse racing and put $20 on a 100 to 1 odds (1% ) underdog, you lose $20 most times but maybe you can win $200 for that same race.  The fact is your odds don't change moment to moment.

Top pair, top kicker is winning most hands on the flop, with a winning percentage of maybe 60% or more. But with flush card or straight cards to draw to, your hand value can fall to 0%.

So while a sure thing like top pair, top kicker may be good on the flop, it tends to turn into a worthless hand from time to time.  Sinking more money on a beaten hand is worse than a low odds play- you may be trapping yourself to lose money on a worthless hand. 

People talk about trapping with big hands, sets, straight flushes and so on.  But the most important trap detection skill is the everyday avoiding bad board textures that will beat top pair hands.