Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Definition of Luck - Convergence of factors

So, anyone that has read my blog might find it a little strange I complained about luck.  Luck is a fuzzy undefined thing so when a person that prides themself on tactics and pattern recognition uses it, well it sounds like I've gone over to other side and next I'm going to discuss pixies and dark magic like a crazy person.

Well, here's my definition of luck - a convergence of negative factors (or positive factors depending on which side you are on).  So when circumstances are largely in your favour - you are 85% all-in with a 85% hand and on the river you lose - that's what I meant by luck. When some situation goes all your way or all against you at a critical time.

Another example. I'm playing at the $70 Caesar's Palace tournament and I scrape into the money with the final 34 players.  It just so happens that I'm the big blind on the very next hand when I have to put 50% of my chips in.  I am now the shortest stack at the table.  From early position, a player raises big and the next player reraises him.  I look down at A-8o.  Of course I really should call, because at this point I'm not quite pot committed but if I don't call I'm left with very little chips.  My read on the situation is two big hands that want to dance for all the chips.  Since I know I'm less than a 33% favourite to win I fold.

I watch the flop come A - K - 8.  First aggressor had Kings and his neighbor had Aces.  This is what I mean by luck.  If the bet was smaller and I just called I would have been out on that hand regardless. The only winning play was to fold and I made it.  On the very next hand, now with a tiny stack, the button raises minimum and I shove with the best hand K6s versus QJo. I knew he was stealing and I knew I was ahead and really had one play left.  But if I hadn't just been decimated I might have waited for a better situation. But I could see little cards for an hour and I only had one orbit left. Even so, my hand was about a 60% favourite so it was the right play. He was pot committed to call me and that's great because I'm ahead and need the double up. Of course he hit a Jack to win.  That's my luck on that tournament.  If the two hands together didn't happen in that order maybe I go on to win the tournament?  

So when I talk of luck, I'm really talking about the time history around the current situation. If you bluff and get caught one hand then wake up with Aces - that's luck - a convergence of factors that lead to an opportunity to use your bluffing image to your advantage.