Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The power of representation

Steve Silverman, a professional player with millions in poker earnings, still doesn't know the power of representation:

Steve is short stacked, about 10 big blinds at 3,000 / 6,000 1000 ante at the Spanish High Roller $50,000. He was a chip leader, played some hands poorly and got himself in a bind with blinds going up and his stack decreasing. He looks down at

T♥

♥T
9♥

♥9

in middle position, as first aggressor he goes all in for his remaining 33,000 chips. In the small blind, a Norwegian named Jensen calls with
K♠

♠T
J♦

♦J

Jensen calls all-in, there is 79,000 chips in the pot and he gets to see the hole cards. The flop comes down:
4♠

♠4
5♥

♥5
4♥

♥4

Silverman shoved all in pre-flop. The board ran out and he didn't improve and he was eliminated short of the money bubble. Now replay the hand in your head, as Jensen, if Silverman had just raised 3* the big blinds, got a call from Jensen and THEN shoved on the flop.
Imagine you are Jensen. You have King Jack, not even Ace high, your opponent raises and then on this flop that missed you - and you must act first on out of position - the short stack goes all in.

4♠

♠4
5♥

♥5
4♥

♥4

Go through Jensen's thought process. The all-in player could have an ace, he could have an overpair, he could even have 2 hearts. In all those cases, a King is a statistical underdog to win the hand. Remember this is a tournament you paid $50,000 to play and you don't want to double up short stacks if you can help it that just gives him more chances to get back in the game. You want to step on his neck and eliminate him!
Of course, with blinds so high it's possible that Jensen calls the all-in bet regardless because there is so little more to lose it's worth the risk. But because Silverman doesn't use the power of representation he didn't get the chance to put doubt in the mind of Jensen and didn't give himself every chance to win the hand. Even pros play sub-optimally, he's still not an expert!