Saturday, December 7, 2013

Turn bet semi-bluff on a flush draw

The turn bet semi-bluff:

This is not a hand specifically, but talks about a scenario that comes up many times. It has become a pattern that many players bet on the turn when they hit a four flush with their cards

Let's say this is your hand:
A♥

♥A
T♥

♥T

and you open as first aggressor with a reasonable 2.5* big blind (BB) bet. The blinds call and you see the flop in position. The dealer turns over:
9♥

♥9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K

You miss, but in case they have small suited connectors you fire out a bet continuation bet on the flop. You get one caller the big blind. This concerns you, perhaps he has a King. You are hesitant what to do. Turn card is a flush and straight draw.
9♥

♥9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K
Q♥

♥Q

This card is an added equity card. He might have a King, perhaps a king with a weak kicker, or he might just be floating to try to take this away from you. He might have an underpair. With this flush card you may not have the best hand, but if you hit your hand, will this player want to risk more money with just an underpair? He also knows you will act last so if he doesn't like the final card - one that makes a flush or a draw - then will he want to continue? You have a chance to take this away right now. Depending on your player read, you need to make the bet at just the right amount. Too much and it looks like a semi-bluff. Too little and he's destined to call with pot odds. You make a 50% bet.

Now, take a look at this hand again, now think about it from your opponent's perspective. Let's say your opponent has:
K♣

♣K
J♥

♥J


9♥

♥9
5♣

♣5
K♦

♦K
Q♥

♥Q

Your bet makes sense as a semi-bluff, the chances both of you have a King is small. Although if you opponent has AK that bet size makes sense as well. You don't want to call off with a King and a weaker kicker all the time that's just a bad long term playing style. So if your opponent has a King, it makes sense to call. The fact is that more people make this play with two flush cards than with a King. Bottom line, this pattern has become so used that people will be able to extract information from this pattern and take money from you with the best hand. Information extraction is the secret of poker. The more predictable your patterns, then the more times people can put you on a hand and beat you.